Dot-com Bubble

The dot-com bubble (also known as the dot-com boom, the tech bubble, the Internet bubble, the dot-com collapse, and the information technology bubble[1]) was a historic economic bubble and period of excessive speculation that occurred from 1995 to 2001. During the bubble, the valuations of companies in the quaternary sector of the economy increased extremely rapidly.[2] The value of the Nasdaq Composite, which includes many technology companies, rose from 1,000 in 1995 to 5,000 in the year 2000.[3]

While the latter part of the dot-com bubble was a boom and bust business cycle, the Internet boom is sometimes meant to refer to the steady commercial growth of the Internet with the advent of the World Wide Web, starting with the release of the Mosaic web browser in 1993, and continuing through the 1990s.[4]

The period was marked by the founding and, in many cases, spectacular failure of several Internet-based companies commonly referred to as dot-coms. Venture capitalists were eager to invest in any company that had one of the Internet-related prefixes or a ".com" suffix in its name.[3] A combination of rapidly increasing stock prices, market confidence that the companies would turn future profits, speculation in stocks by individuals, and widely available venture capital created an environment in which many investors were willing to overlook traditional metrics, such as the Price-earnings ratio, in favor of basing confidence on technological advancements. By the end of the 1990s, the NASDAQ Composite reached a price-earnings ratio of 200, a truly astonishing plateau that dwarfed the peak price-earnings ratio of 80 for the Japanese Nikkei 225 a decade earlier.[2]

The collapse of the bubble took place during 1999-2001. Some companies, such as Pets.com and Webvan, failed completely. Others, such as Cisco, whose stock declined by 86%, lost a large portion of their market capitalization but remained stable and profitable. Some, such as eBay and Amazon.com, later recovered and even surpassed their dot-com-bubble stock price peaks.[5]

Bubble growth

The NASDAQ Composite index spiked in the late 1990s and then fell sharply as a result of the dot-com bubble.

Increases in computer and internet usage

The expansion of the internet occurred in industrialized nations due to the reduction of the "digital divide" in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Between 1990 and 1997, the percentage of households owning computers increased from 15% to 35%.[6] Previously, the absence of connectivity infrastructure and a lack of understanding of the internet were two major obstacles that previously obstructed mass connectivity to the internet. Increased means of connectivity to the Internet and the increased functionality of the internet caused the use of information and communications technology to progress from a luxury to a necessity. The shift to an economy based on computerization is known as the Information Age.

Record-setting growth by technology companies

Due to the advent of the Information Age, technology companies realized record-setting growth and experienced meteoric rises in their stock prices. Venture capitalists, eager to profit on this growth, moved to raise and invest capital faster and with less caution than usual. The low interest rates of 1998-99 helped increase the availability of funding.[7]

"Get big fast"

A canonical "dot-com" company's business model relied on harnessing network effects by operating at a sustained net loss and building market share (or mind share). These companies offered their services or products for free or at a discount with the expectation that they could build enough brand awareness to charge profitable rates for their services in the future. The phrase "Get large or get lost" was the wisdom of the day.[8] The motto "get big fast" reflected this strategy.[9][10] Internet companies believed that their survival depended on expanding their customer bases as rapidly as possible, even if it produced large annual losses. For example, Amazon.com spent large sums on advertising to alert people to its existence and expand its customer base, and Google distributed its operating system for free and spent rapidly to create more powerful machine capacity to serve its expanding web search engine.[] At the height of the boom, it was possible for a promising dot-com to become a public company via an initial public offering and raise a substantial amount of money even though it had never made a profit--or, in some cases, realized any material revenue whatsoever. In such a situation, a company's lifespan was measured by its burn rate: that is, the rate at which a non-profitable company lacking a viable business model ran through its capital.[]

Public awareness through advertising campaigns were one of the ways in which dot-coms sought to expand their customer bases. These included television ads, print ads, and targeting of professional sporting events. Many dot-coms named themselves with onomatopoeic nonsense words that they hoped would be memorable and not easily confused with a competitor. Super Bowl XXXIV in January 2000 featured 16 dot-com companies that each paid over $2 million for a 30-second spot. By contrast, in January 2001, just three dot-coms bought advertising spots during Super Bowl XXXV. In a similar vein, CBS-backed iWon.com gave away $10 million to a lucky contestant on an April 15, 2000 half-hour primetime special that was broadcast on CBS.[11]

The "growth over profits" mentality and the aura of "new economy" invincibility led some companies to engage in lavish internal spending, such as elaborate business facilities and luxury vacations for employees. Executives and employees who were paid with employee stock options instead of cash became instant millionaires when the company made its initial public offering; many invested their new wealth into yet more dot-coms.

Cities all over the United States sought to become the "next Silicon Valley" by building network-enabled office space to attract Internet entrepreneurs. Communication providers, convinced that the future economy would require ubiquitous broadband access, went deeply into debt to improve their networks with high-speed equipment and fiber optic cables. Companies that produced network equipment including Nortel Networks were irrevocably damaged by such over-extension; Nortel declared bankruptcy in early 2009. Companies such as Cisco, which did not have any production facilities, but bought from other manufacturers, were able to leave quickly and actually do well from the situation as the bubble burst and products were sold cheaply.

In the struggle to become a technology hub, many cities and states used tax money to fund technology conference centers, advanced infrastructure, and created favorable business and tax law to encourage development of the dotcom industry in their locale. Virginia's Dulles Technology Corridor is a prime example of this activity. Large quantities of high-speed fiber links were laid, and the State and local governments gave tax exemptions to technology firms. Many of these buildings along I-495 became vacant office buildings after the bubble burst.

Similarly, in Europe the vast amounts of cash the mobile phone operators spent on 3G licences in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, for example, led them into deep debt and led to the telecoms crash. The investments in infrastructure were far out of proportion to both their current and projected cash flow, but this was not publicly acknowledged until as late as 2001 and 2002. Due to the highly networked nature of the information technology industry, this quickly led to problems for small companies dependent on contracts from operators. One example is of mobile network company Sonera, which paid huge sums in German broadband auction then dubbed as 3G licenses. Third-generation networks however took years to catch on and Sonera ended up being bought by Telia.

Stock market bubble

In financial markets, a stock market bubble is a self-perpetuating rise or boom in the share prices of stocks of a particular industry; the term may be used with certainty only in retrospect after share prices have crashed. A bubble occurs when speculators note the fast increase in value and decide to buy in anticipation of further rises, rather than because the shares are undervalued. Typically, during a bubble, many companies thus become grossly overvalued. When the bubble "bursts", the share prices fall dramatically. The prices of many non-technology stocks increased in tandem and were also pushed up to valuations uncorrelated to fundamentals.[12]

American news media, including respected business publications such as Forbes and the Wall Street Journal, encouraged the public to invest in risky companies, despite many of the companies' disregard for basic financial and even legal principles.[2][13]

Andrew Smith argued that the financial industry's handling of initial public offerings tended to benefit the banks and initial investors rather than the companies.[14] This is because company staff were typically barred from reselling their shares during a lock-up period of 12 to 18 months, and so they did not benefit from the common pattern of a huge short-lived share price spike on the day of the launch. In contrast, the financiers and other initial investors were typically entitled to sell immediately and profit from short-term price rises. Smith argues that the high profitability of the IPOs to Wall Street was a significant factor in the course of events of the bubble. He wrote:

"But did the kids [the often young dotcom entrepreneurs] dupe the establishment by drawing them into fake companies, or did the establishment dupe the kids by introducing them to Mammon and charging a commission on it?"

In spite of this, a few company founders made vast fortunes when their companies were bought out at an early stage in the dot-com stock market bubble. These early successes made the bubble even more buoyant. An unprecedented amount of personal investing occurred during the boom, and the press reported the phenomenon of people quitting their jobs to engage in full-time day trading.[15]

Academics Preston Teeter and Jorgen Sandberg have criticized Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan for his role in the promotion and rise in tech stocks.[2] Their research cites numerous examples of Greenspan putting a positive spin on historic stock valuations despite a wealth of evidence suggesting that stocks were overvalued.

Aftermath

On January 10, 2000, America Online, a favorite of dot-com investors and pioneer of dial-up Internet access, announced plans to merge with Time Warner, the world's largest media company, in the largest merger in history at that time.[16] The transaction has been described as "the worst in history".[17][18] Within two years, boardroom disagreements drove out both of the CEOs who made the deal, and in October 2003 AOL Time Warner dropped "AOL" from its name.[19]

On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ Composite peaked at 5,132.52, but fell 78% in the following 30 months.[20]

Many dot-coms ran out of capital and were acquired or went through liquidation; the domain names were purchased by old-economy competitors, speculators or cybersquatters. Several companies and their executives were accused or convicted of fraud for misusing shareholders' money, and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission fined top investment firms including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch millions of dollars for misleading investors. Various supporting industries, such as advertising and shipping, scaled back their operations as demand for their services fell. A few large dot-com companies, such as Amazon.com, eBay, and Google, became industry-dominating mega-firms.

Telecoms crash

Several communication companies could not weather the financial burden and were forced to file for bankruptcy protection, causing what is known as the telecoms crash. One of the more significant players, WorldCom, led by Bernard Ebbers, was the subject of accounting scandals. WorldCom's stock price fell drastically when the accounting scandal was publicized, and, in 2002, it filed the largest corporate bankruptcy ever at the time.[21] Other examples of companies that filed for bankruptcy protection include NorthPoint Communications, Global Crossing, JDS Uniphase, XO Communications, and Covad Communications. Companies such as Nortel, Cisco, and Corning Inc. were at a disadvantage because they relied on infrastructure that was never developed and their stock prices dropped significantly.

September 11th attacks and stock market downturn of 2002

The September 11 attacks accelerated the stock market drop; the NYSE suspended trading for four sessions. When trading resumed, some of it was transacted in temporary new locations.[22]

The Stock market downturn of 2002 caused the loss of $5 trillion in the market value of companies from March 2000 to October 2002.[23]

Surviving companies

More in-depth analysis shows that 48% of the dot-com companies survived through 2004.[24] It can be concluded that even companies who were categorized as the "small players" were adequate enough to endure the destruction of the financial market during 2000-2002.[24] Retail investors who felt burned by the burst transitioned their investment portfolios to more cautious positions.[25]

Job market glut

Nevertheless, laid-off technology experts, such as computer programmers, found a glutted job market. University degree programs for computer-related careers saw a noticeable drop in new students.[26][27] Anecdotes of unemployed programmers going back to school to become accountants or lawyers were common.

Legacy

On the long-term legacy of the bubble, venture capitalist Fred Wilson, who funded dot-com companies, said about the dot-com bubble:

"A friend of mine has a great line. He says 'Nothing important has ever been built without irrational exuberance'. Meaning that you need some of this mania to cause investors to open up their pocketbooks and finance the building of the railroads or the automobile or aerospace industry or whatever. And in this case, much of the capital invested was lost, but also much of it was invested in a very high throughput backbone for the Internet, and lots of software that works, and databases and server structure. All that stuff has allowed what we have today, which has changed all our lives... that's what all this speculative mania built".[28]

As the technology boom receded, consolidation and growth by market leaders caused the tech industry to come to more closely resemble other traditional U.S. sectors. Ten information technology firms are now members of the Fortune 100, the 100 largest U.S. corporations by revenues: Apple, Hewlett-Packard, IBM, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Google, Intel, Cisco Systems, Ingram Micro, and Oracle.

List of companies significant to the bubble

For discussion and a list of dot-com companies outside the scope of the dot-com bubble, see dot-com company.

  • Boo.com - spent $188 million in just six months[29] in an attempt to create a global online fashion store that went bankrupt in May 2000.
  • Books-a-Million - Saw its stock price soar by over 1,000% in one week simply by announcing an updated website on November 25, 1998. The company's share price rose from around $3 previously to an all-time closing high of $38.94 on November 27 and an intra-day high of $47.00 on November 30, before quickly pulling back to around $10 two weeks later. By 2000, the share price had returned to $3.[30][31][32][33]
  • Broadcast.com - Acquired by Yahoo! for $5.9 billion in stock, making Mark Cuban a multi-billionaire. The site is now defunct and redirects to Yahoo!'s home page.
  • e.Digital Corporation (EDIG) - Long-term, unprofitable OTCBB-traded company founded in 1988 previously named Norris Communications. Changed its name to e.Digital in January 1999 when stock was at $0.06 level. The stock rose rapidly in 1999 and went from closing price of $2.91 on December 31, 1999, to intraday high of $24.50 on January 24, 2000. It quickly retraced and has traded between $0.07 and $0.165 in 2010.[34] As of 2013, the stock continues to trade low, ranging between $0.12 and $0.19 a share[35]
  • eToys.com - Online toy retailer founded in 1997, hit a high of $84.35 in October 1999. Only two years later in February 2001, it filed for bankruptcy with $247 million in debt. It was bought out by KB Toys, which also had to file for bankruptcy.[36]
  • FreeInternet.com - Filed for bankruptcy in October 2000, soon after canceling its initial public offering. At the time Freeinternet.com was the fifth-largest ISP in the United States, with 3.2 million users.[37] Famous for its mascot Baby Bob, the company lost $19 million in 1999 on revenues of less than $1 million[38][39]
  • GeoCities - Purchased by Yahoo! for $3.57 billion in January 1999.[40] Yahoo! closed GeoCities on October 26, 2009[41]
  • theGlobe.com - Social networking service, that went live in April 1995 and made headlines by going public on November 1998 and posting the largest first day gain of any IPO in history up to that date. The CEO became in 1999 a visible symbol of the excesses of dot-com millionaires
  • GovWorks.com - Doomed dot-com featured in the documentary film Startup.com
  • inktomi - Valuation of $25 billion in March 2000
  • InfoSpace - In March 2000 this stock reached a price $1,305 per share, but by April 2001 the price had crashed down to $22 a share[42]
  • Kozmo.com - offered one-hour local delivery of a number of retail items, from March 1998 to April 2001
  • Lastminute.com - IPO in the UK coincided with the bursting of the bubble
  • The Learning Company, bought by Mattel in 1999 for $3.5 billion, sold for $27.3 million in 2000[43]
  • Lycos - Purchased by Spanish telecommunications provider Telefónica for $12.5 billion in 2000[44] to expand its Terra Networks online platform. It was sold in 2004 to Seoul, South Korea-based Daum Communications Corporation for $95.4 million in cash, less than 2% of Terra's initial multibillion-dollar investment.[45]
  • MicroStrategy - Shares lost more than half their value on March 20, 2000, following their announcement of re-stated financials for the previous two years. A BusinessWeek editorial said at the time, "The company's misfortune is a wake-up call to all dot-com investors. The message: It's time, at last, to pay attention to the numbers".[46]
  • Open.com - Was a big software security producer, reseller, and distributor; declared bankruptcy in 2001
  • Pets.com - Former dot-com enterprise that sold pet supplies to retail customers before entering bankruptcy in 2000
  • Pixelon - Internet streaming video company that hosted a $16 million launch party in 1999 hosting celebrities such as The Who and the Dixie Chicks. Failed less than a year later when it became apparent that its technologies were fraudulent or misrepresented[47]
  • Startups.com - "Ultimate dot-com startup" that went out of business in 2002
  • Think Tools AG - One of the most extreme symptoms of the bubble in Europe: market valuation of CHF 2.5 billion in March 2000, no prospects of having a substantial product (investor deception), followed by a collapse[48]
  • Tiscali - Important Italian telecommunications company whose share price grew from EUR46 (IPO in November 1999) to EUR1,197 in four months. They fell to EUR40 afterwards in less than two months and have continued plummeting to well under 0.20 euro.[49]
  • VA Linux - A provider of built-to-order Intel systems based on Linux and other open source projects. They set the record for largest first-day IPO price gain; after the price was set at $30/share, it ended the first day of trading at $239.25/share, a 698% gain (9 December 1999). After that, its stock declined consistently. After several business transitions it became Geeknet. It provides the backdrop of the documentary Revolution OS.
  • Webvan, Online grocer that operated on a "credit and delivery" system; the original company went bankrupt in 2001. It was later resurrected by Amazon.com
  • WorldCom, a long-distance telephone and internet-services provider that became notorious for using fraudulent accounting practices to increase their stock price. The company filed for bankruptcy in 2002 and former CEO Bernard Ebbers was convicted of fraud and conspiracy.
  • Xcelera.com (XLA) - Swedish investor in start-up technology firms that was one of the[50] "greatest one-year rise of any exchange-listed stock in the history of Wall Street"[51]

See also

Terminology

Media

Venture capital

Economic downturn

References

  1. ^ James K. Galbraith and Travis Hale (2004). Income Distribution and the Information Technology Bubble. University of Texas Inequality Project Working Paper
  2. ^ a b c d Teeter, Preston; Sandberg, Jorgen (2017). "Cracking the enigma of asset bubbles with narratives". Strategic Organization. 15 (1): 91-99. doi:10.1177/1476127016629880. 
  3. ^ a b "Dotcom Bubble". Investopedia. 
  4. ^ Kline, Greg (April 20, 2003). "Mosaic started Web rush, Internet boom". The News-Gazette (Champaign-Urbana). 
  5. ^ Clarke, Tara (May 13, 2015). "When Did The Stock Market Crash? A List Of U.S. Markets' Worst Declines". ETF Daily News. 
  6. ^ "Issues in labor Statistics" (PDF). U.S. Department of Labor. 1999. 
  7. ^ Weinberger, Matt (February 3, 2016). "If you're too young to remember the insanity of the dot-com bubble, check out these pictures". Business Insider. 
  8. ^ "How to Start a Startup". Paulgraham.com. 2005-10-21. Retrieved . 
  9. ^ BERLIN, LESLIE (November 21, 2008). "Lessons of Survival, From the Dot-Com Attic". New York Times. 
  10. ^ Dodge, John (May 16, 2000). "MotherNature.com's CEO Defends Dot-Coms' Get-Big-Fast Strategy". Wall Street Journal. (subscription required)
  11. ^ "iWon.com Awards Arthur 'Ti' Moyer III $1 Million!" (Press release). PRNewswire. March 15, 2009. 
  12. ^ Anderson, Keith; Brooks, Chris; Katsaris, Apostolos (2010). "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?". Journal of Empirical Finance. 17 (3): 345-361. doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2009.12.004. ISSN 0927-5398. 
  13. ^ Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing, Roger Lowenstein, Penguin Books, 2004, ISBN 1-59420-003-3, ISBN 978-1-59420-003-8 pp. 114-115.
  14. ^ Totally Wired: On the Trail of the Great Dotcom Swindle Andrew Smith (author) Bloomsbury Books 2012 ISBN 978-1-84737-449-3
  15. ^ Kadlec, Daniel (9 August 1999). "Day Trading: It's a Brutal World". Time Magazine. 
  16. ^ Johnson, Tom (January 10, 2000). "Thats AOL folks". CNN. 
  17. ^ Goldman, David (February 3, 2010). "Time Warner hikes dividend as outlook brightens". CNN. 
  18. ^ Kass, Doug (May 8, 2014). "Kass: Facebook-WhatsApp Fallout". TheStreet.com. 
  19. ^ "AOL Time Warner to drop 'AOL' name". Reuters. CNET. 17 October 2003. 
  20. ^ Glassman, James K. (February 11, 2015). "3 Lessons for Investors From the Tech Bubble". Kiplinger's Personal Finance. 
  21. ^ Beltran, Luisa (July 22, 2002). "WorldCom files largest bankruptcy ever". CNN. 
  22. ^ Davis, Marc (September 9, 2011). "How September 11 Affected The U.S. Stock Market". Investopedia. 
  23. ^ Gaither, Chris; Chmielewski, Dawn C. (July 16, 2006). "Fears of Dot-Com Crash, Version 2.0". Los Angeles Times. 
  24. ^ a b Goldfarb, Brent; Kirsch, David; Miller, David A. (2007). "Was there too little entry during the Dot Com Era?". Journal of Financial Economics. 86 (1): 100-44. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2006.03.009.  Preprint available at SSRN 871210
  25. ^ Reuteman, Rob (August 9, 2010). "Hard Times Investing: For Some, Cash Is Everything And Only Thing". CNBC. 
  26. ^ desJardins, Marie (October 22, 2015). "The real reason U.S. students lag behind in computer science". Fortune Magazine. 
  27. ^ Mann, Amar; Nunes, Tony (2009). "After the Dot-Com Bubble: Silicon Valley High-Tech Employment And Wages in 2001 and 2008". Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
  28. ^ DONNELLY, JACOB (February 14, 2016). "Here's what the future of bitcoin looks like -- and it's bright". VentureBeat. 
  29. ^ "Fashionmall.com Swoops In for the Boo.com Fire Sale". The New York Times. June 2, 2000. Retrieved 2010. 
  30. ^ "Books-A-Million, Inc. Announces Enhanced Website". The Free Library. 25 November 1998. Retrieved 2014. 
  31. ^ "CNNfn market movers". CNNfn. 25 November 1998. Retrieved 2014. 
  32. ^ "Books-A-Million (BAMM) quotes". Google Finance. 
  33. ^ "Books-A-Million (BAMM) historical prices". Google Finance. Retrieved 2014. 
  34. ^ "Historical prices of EDIG stock". Finance.yahoo.com. Retrieved . 
  35. ^ "Historical prices of EDIG stock". Finance.yahoo.com. Retrieved . 
  36. ^ "10 big dot.com flops - eToys.com (3) - CNNMoney.com". money.cnn.com. Retrieved . 
  37. ^ "Another One Bites the Dust - FreeInternet.com Files for Bankruptcy". Addlebrain.com. 2000-10-09. Retrieved . 
  38. ^ "InternetNews Realtime IT News - Freeinternet.com Scores User Surge". Internetnews.com. 2000-08-11. Retrieved . 
  39. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2011-09-27. Retrieved . 
  40. ^ "Yahoo! buys GeoCities". CNN. January 28, 1999. Retrieved 2013. 
  41. ^ Shaer, Matthew (October 26, 2009). "GeoCities, a relic of a different web era, shuttered by Yahoo". The Christian Science Monitor. Retrieved 2013. 
  42. ^ "The two faces of InfoSpace 1998-2001". The Seattle Times. 
  43. ^ Abigail Goldman (2002-12-06). "Mattel Settles Shareholders Lawsuit For $122 Million". Los Angeles Times. 
  44. ^ "Lycos in $12.5B deal". CNN. May 16, 2000. Retrieved 2013. 
  45. ^ "South Korean Company Buys Lycos". Wired. 2000-08-04. Retrieved . 
  46. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2013-06-06. Retrieved . 
  47. ^ P.J. HuffStutter (December 25, 2000). "Dot-Com Parties Dry Up". Los Angeles Times. 
  48. ^ Don't Think Twice: Think Tools is Overvalued, The Wall Street Journal Europe, October 30, 2000
  49. ^ "PT> Il caso Tiscali". Performancetrading.it. Retrieved . 
  50. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 2008-12-01. Retrieved . 
  51. ^ "Xcelera.com Overview". Georgenichols.com. Retrieved . 
Notes
  • Aharon, David Y.; Gavious, Ilanit; Yosef, Rami (2010). "Stock market bubble effects on mergers and acquisitions". The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 50 (4): 456-70. doi:10.1016/j.qref.2010.05.002. 

Further reading

External links


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